Why is Trump risking a trade war with Canada?

The Canadian lumber industry functions differently from that of the United States. In the U.S., most logging is done by private companies on privately owned land. The Canadian timber industry operates largely on public lands, with companies paying a fee to harvest. U.S. logging companies charge that this constitutes an unfair government subsidy, allowing Canadian producers to flood the American market with cheaply produced softwood (from fir, spruce, pine, and other coniferous trees).

Every few years this dispute flares up, and then the Canadian and U.S. governments reach an agreement—often under pressure from American builders, who are upset about paying higher costs for wood—that sets some sort of quota on imports to the U.S. to appease all parties. The latest agreement, signed in 2006, expired in 2015, leading inexorably to Tuesday’s declaration. Bloomberg reported that some Canadian lumber officials, while disputing the U.S. charges, actually viewed the tariffs as less onerous than might have been expected.

“This is so predictable,” says Laura Dawson, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center. “It’s like the Mayan calendar: 100 years of good harvest and then 10 years of chaos and darkness.”