“Flows of Mexican migrants to the United States have been driven since our grandparents’ day by the supply and demand for work on either side of the border, regardless of walls and other obstacles thrown in their way.” So wrote The New York Times’ Eduardo Porter in October 2016, summarizing a bipartisan report by leading figures in the immigration field. He spoke for the consensus. Economic incentives mattered. Legal disincentives did not.
This spring those former certainties suddenly look very wrong. If rude words by the head of government, an inconsistent uptick in interior enforcement, plus a travel ban that flunked judicial review, suffice to cut illegal migration flows by 60 to 90 percent, then the policies and attitudes of the receiving countries begin to look powerful indeed.
Perhaps the Trump effect will prove short-lived. If the economy continues to expand, perhaps illegal migration will resume. But the first quarter of 2017 revealed what is possible. The perception of stricter enforcement can change behavior. That discovery points the way to the next possible accomplishment: building a structure of enforcement that can endure past the first hundred days.
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