To be sure, other factors are combining to prompt a re-think in Beijing. Indeed, both Global Times editorials spoke about the pressures that “Chinese society” is exerting on Beijing’s policy. It’s no exaggeration to say that the Chinese are fed up with Kim. On the Web, they refer to him as “Kim Fatman the Third.” When they travel to North Korea on weekend trips, they smirk about how it reminds them of the days when China was poor and backward. A recent post on the WeChat social-media site compared North Korea to a “rabid dog,” implying that someone (perhaps even China) should put it down.
Still, the recent pronouncements from Beijing show that Trump’s unpredictability can be an asset in dealing with the Chinese and that his bellicosity can serve a purpose, too. History here can be a guide. In October 2002, then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin went to Crawford, Tex., to meet with then-President George W. Bush. North Korea had recently acknowledged that it was building a nuclear bomb. Bush asked Jiang to use his influence to shut the program down, but Jiang demurred, announcing, Bush wrote in his memoirs, that North Korea “was [Bush’s] problem, not his.” In January 2003, Bush tried again. Again Jiang didn’t bite. Then in February, Bush warned that he was contemplating bombing North Korea. That got China’s attention. In August 2003, under pressure from Beijing, North Korea agreed to join China, the United States, South Korea, Japan and Russia in the six-party talks.
The six-party talks ultimately collapsed, but Bush’s history provides an insight into China’s evolving behavior today. The regime in Beijing responds best to clarity from the United States. As he stumbles toward a China policy, Trump might have hit on a way to deal with Beijing.
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