Will Trump benefit from a "rally around the flag" effect after the Syria airstrike?

4. Americans are more likely to warm toward the president when there are revisionist goals at stake.

Revisionist goals are generally defined as “making claims to territory,” “attempting to overthrow a regime” or “declaring the intention not to abide by another state’s policy.” The U.S. isn’t trying to claim territory in the Syrian conflict, as it did during wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Nor is it clear whether the White House is seeking to remove Assad from power. The U.S. is, however, trying to change Assad’s policy on chemical weapons. Further, as stated earlier, the Syrian conflict has multiple actors, including Islamic State, which the U.S. certainly wants to overthrow. The Islamic State, however, was not a target in the U.S. missile strike. If the White House pivots and frames any U.S. action in Syria as about the conflict at large, there’s a greater chance that Trump’s actions will be seen as combating revisionist goals.

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5. Americans are more likely to rally behind a president at the beginning of his presidency.

Trump is less than 100 days into his presidency, so this factor should work in his favor. Unlike other presidents, though, Trump has quickly built up a lot of dislike among independents and members of the opposing party. New presidents tend to get the benefit of the doubt — that’s why this point is on our list — but Trump is not your average new president. If Democratic and some independent voters are already beyond his reach (and his high “strongly disapprove” job rating numbers suggests they may be), it may not matter that we’re early in the Trump presidency.

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