What did Putin know and when did he know it?

The truth is: Russia is complicit in the use of sarin gas against civilians in Syria. But getting caught, embarrassing as it might be, is useful to the Kremlin, too. Putin understands that Trump’s missile attack could be the narrative pivot he needs to escape the consequences of his actions.

Already, hopes for a reset were fading in Moscow. The Kremlin has become increasingly concerned that Trump is constrained by investigations and the public’s anti-Russian sentiments, and that their efforts to cultivate a friendly face in the White House will yield nothing. That means they have two options: Force their opponent to work harder for the deal, or else return to the narrative of America as “the main opponent.”

Either is a win for Putin, and both were achieved by allowing the strike.

The Kremlin reality-distortion machine is at full churn, spewing out outrage and diversion: the U.S. bombed Syria to distract from civilian casualties in Iraq; it was really to send a message to North Korea; Trump was trying to reverse declining approval ratings; the U.S. is supporting ISIS; the sarin attack was a “provocation” meant to force President Trump back from his softening position on the longevity of Assad’s reign.