Rex Tillerson is already underwater

President Donald Trump promptly put the kibosh on Tillerson’s choice of a deputy, Elliott Abrams. He failed to consult with Tillerson on his policy change on Palestinian statehood or putting Iran “on notice” for its most recent ballistic missile test—whatever that may mean. The nation’s chief diplomat has been absent from the president’s key meetings with the leaders of Israel and Canada and largely invisible in Trump’s encounters with the prime ministers of Japan and the United Kingdom, as well as the White House’s diplomacy with Mexico so far. The White House’s reassurance tour of Europe, which you might expect to be helmed by the secretary of state, consisted instead of Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly. There are reports that Tillerson played a role in Trump’s walk-back on the “one China” policy. But there’s no indication that he’s been involved in high-level discussions concerning Russia…

At the moment, however, neither the headlines nor the trend lines look all that good for Tillerson. The secretary of state has options to play a more influential role under these unhappy circumstances, but, frankly, none of them are all that good. Unless his boss empowers him, Tillerson won’t have the street cred he needs at home and abroad to emerge as a truly consequential secretary of state. And Trump and the nation will be the big losers. Is there anything he can do?…

The president’s style and persona may be the biggest problem Tillerson faces, but it’s not the only one. The other obvious challenge is that he wasn’t the president’s first choice for secretary of state—and he’s not part of Trump’s inner circle. This wouldn’t pose a problem in normal circumstances. But this situation is far from normal: Two members of that inner circle—Steve Bannon and Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner—take a strong personal interest in foreign policy. Both are not only personally close to the president but physically proximate as well. Bannon has been with him since the campaign began and Kushner for much longer. Kushner has even been designated as point person on a hot-button issue—Israel and the peace process—traditionally reserved for the secretary of state.