Trump is not as unpopular as liberals think

So with all this confusion, is Trump justified in just citing whichever polling results he wants? No, not really. Most observers who are interested in approximating the truth go with polling averages. At the moment, RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls places Trump’s job approval ratio at 45/51. It’s also important to pay attention to trends. As it happens, since Trump bragged about his Rasmussen numbers, his approval ratio in that tracking poll has deteriorated from 55/45 to 50/50, the worst ratio of his brief administration.

It is an entirely different question how much these numbers matter as a predictor of the next election. While the party of the president almost always loses House seats and more often than not loses Senate and gubernatorial seats in midterms, and less popular presidents usually lose more than popular presidents, variations in the landscape can make it very tricky to lay odds. The Senate landscape in 2018 is insanely pro-Republican. GOP control of the upper chamber could very well survive even a Democratic electoral tsunami. Since all House seats are up in 2018, GOP control there is significantly more vulnerable, but thanks to gerrymandering and superior “efficiency” in the distribution of voters, Democrats will have an uphill battle to win the net 24 seats necessary for a flip in control — and with it the ability to thwart the Trump/GOP agenda. Nate Cohn appears to think it’s too much of a reach even if Trump’s approval ratings stay roughly where they are today.