Running a reign of terror is tricky business. Don’t kill enough people and you might be perceived as too weak, and be killed yourself. But if you kill too many people, some will start thinking they’re next on your list, and they will gang up on you. This is what happened in the Soviet Union upon Stalin’s death, when Lavrentiy Beria, the infamous head of Stalin’s secret police, made a bid for power. Unlike Stalin, for whom killing was just business, Beria was a sadist who joyfully relished torture, murder, and rape. Beria very briefly ruled the country, but the rest of the Politburo had absolutely no doubt that Beria would eventually have them all tortured and killed. So they killed Beria before he could kill them.
The same thing could happen to Kim Jong Un. It’s possible that he has stepped on this treadmill of purges and paranoia, and the killing of his own half-brother is evidence of that.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Kim Jong Un will die of old age, still in power, like his father and grandfather before him. Or maybe he will be taken out, but in a relatively bloodless coup, and be replaced by some other strongman who can hold the country together. Or maybe taking out Kim Jong Un will lead to the collapse of the regime.
But let me be clear: The question is not if the North Korean regime will collapse, but when.
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