So here’s my question: is there anything that could happen that could cause Trump’s group of core supporters to lose their passion for the president?
Right now, I think the answer is no. Trump supporters are clearly less-than-thrilled with some aspects of Trump’s style, but they also don’t see any material downside to anything that’s happened so far. Plus, most voters don’t develop buyer’s remorse so soon after an election. One can understand why Conway would feel secure about her RPI.
Here’s the thing, though. If there is a serious economic slowdown, or a Katrina-level government foul-up, or a national security crisis that could lead to an unpopular war, those numbers will go south real fast. Because that is the point at which all of these minor kerfuffles start to look more like presidential incompetence to his base. It is true that the sooner such a negative shock happens, the more likely the Trump administration will blame the Obama administration for whatever bad thing happened. But Trump has made that standard political move more difficult by talking up the economy ever since his election. If the White House stays chaotic and bad things start happening in the next few months, all of the little things that Trump’s supporters can laugh off right now won’t look so funny if layoffs start hitting Trump counties.