How Trump could get a deal with North Korea

The real tipping point for the Trump administration is likely to come within the next few months, when the United States and South Korea conduct combined annual military exercises called “Key Resolve.” In November, at an unofficial meeting with former U.S. government officials in Geneva, North Korean officials made it clear that, while Pyongyang was going to take a “wait and see” attitude toward the newly elected President Trump, its patience would not last forever and might not last past the joint exercise.

For the past few years, the U.S.-South Korean military exercises have simulated military operations for invading North Korea and managing the aftermath of a collapse of its regime. If that were not enough to rattle the North Koreans, recently the exercises have involved the deployment of American nuclear-capable bombers and drills to practice the “decapitation” of the North Korean leadership, that is, killing senior officials before the nuclear button could be pushed. It is not surprising that North Korean officials both publicly and privately have harped on getting the exercises canceled to create the right atmosphere for renewed diplomatic dialogue. But they are also realistic and know that isn’t going to happen. So, in November 2016, in private discussions with American experts, including one of the authors, North Korean officials hinted they might be willing to exercise restraint in the testing of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons if the United States and South Korea adjusted the exercises to make them less threatening. That message was reaffirmed by the Korean Central News Agency, Pyongyang’s official mouthpiece, which stated on February 6 that “the Trump Administration should propose the DPRK to adjust military drills in 2017.”

The exercises certainly both have operational value and provide reassurance of the U.S. defense commitment to South Korean security, which is particularly important at a time when the North Korean WMD threat is mounting. On the other hand, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that the North will not give up nuclear weapons as long as Pyongyang believes that the United States and South Korea pose an existential threat to its security.