If Trump’s net approval rating follows suit (as it may already be starting to) and drops further between now and November 2018, it will be lower than that of any midterm president in the polling era. In that case, history suggests that Republican legislative losses could be severe. For the GOP to lose control of Congress, it would have to end up with a net loss of 24 seats in the House4 or three seats (albeit in deep-red states) in the Senate. Those are realistic possibilities amid an unpopular first-term presidency. Clinton, Obama and Reagan all lost at least 26 House seats; no one with a positive net approval has lost more than 18.
However, there are plenty of reasons to question whether the pattern will hold true for Trump. For starters, all preceding presidents’ approval ratings started from precipitous heights; many had nowhere to go but down. Trump, by contrast, is beginning his presidency relatively unpopular; he has plenty of room to improve. If newly elected presidents tend to revert to the mean, Trump is starting from a pretty average place.
Moreover, the relationship between net approval and midterm losses is far from perfect. Other factors clearly play into midterm election results as well, and in 2018, those factors will work against Democrats: They face a Senate map with few opportunities for gains and a House map skewed red by urban packing and gerrymandering. Although history implies that the Democrats should make gains, these structural barriers could hand that advantage right back to the GOP.
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