At the same time, Trump continues the fruitless war in Yemen that he inherited from Obama, apparently hoping it will continue to yield intelligence gains and cement goodwill with America’s major regional ally, Saudi Arabia. But that also meant continuing the plan for a risky raid that the Obama administration passed on over a month ago.
Trump is allowing the advisers who are hawkish on Iran and China to influence his decisions, or even pollute the information environment.
Last week, Trump announced his plan for increased sanctions on Iran. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, whose hostility to Iran verges on the fanatical, falsely attributed to Iran an attack on a Saudi vessel that was launched by the Yemeni Houthis who are in a pitched battle with Saudi Arabia. Flynn’s statements on the conflict ignore the agency of Yemeni forces on the ground, simply attributing Houthi actions to Iran. There is something oddly familiar about advisers to a Republican president going on the lookout for any pretext to attack a nation they’ve long had in their sights.
And, of course, hawkishness with Iran works against detente with Russia. The Russian government does a fair amount of business with Iran, and the two nations have worked together to shore up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government. A foreign policy that was able to detach these two nations from each other would represent a genuine strategic advancement for the United States. But so far it is an open question whether Trump and his advisers even understand this. Flynn’s own writing seems to suggest he sees Russia as a partner, helping defend the Western world order from Islam at the Gates of Vienna. But the truth is that Russia, just like the United States, has its affinities and interests in the Middle East that can’t be simply wished away.
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