What are Donald Trump’s chances of getting his Supreme Court nominee confirmed by the Senate? That depends on who he picks — Trump needs to find a nominee that balances ideology with qualifications. A pick too far to the right may leave Trump with too few Democratic votes, while one lacking in qualifications could turn off even Republicans.
Trump is reportedly looking to place a conservative on the bench. The leading candidates appear to be federal court judges Neil Gorsuch, who has a sterling resume, and Thomas Hardiman, who is more ideologically enigmatic but who has the backing of Maryanne Trump Barry, a senior federal appeals court judge and Trump’s sister. A third possibility is William Pryor Jr., another federal appeals court judge, who is seen as the most outspoken conservative. All three judges would probably face stiff Democratic opposition, especially after Republicans refused to hold confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland. Still, it would likely be Pryor who would have the most difficult time getting through the confirmation hearings.
The big question is whether any of these judges can receive at least eight Democratic votes. Democrats have basically promised to filibuster Trump’s pick no matter who it is, which means Republicans will need 60 votes to invoke cloture and force an up-or-down vote on the nominee. While it is expected that pretty much every one of the Senate’s 52 Republicans will vote for whomever Trump nominates, that leaves the GOP in need of eight votes to overcome the filibuster. If the Trump administration can’t find those eight votes, don’t be surprised if Republicans try to eliminate the filibuster the way that Democrats previously did for other federal court nominations.
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