There’s a great deal of confusion today about what the actual divorce rate is in the United States. There are lots of opinions—some of them offered with great confidence, but with very little true insight or accuracy.
Some say it’s around 50 percent. Others say it’s nowhere close to that. Some incorrectly believe the 50 percent number is derived from a comparison of the number of weddings and divorces in a given year. But no serious scholar or demographer has ever measured divorce rates that way.
Only a small handful of family scholars seem sure about what the current divorce rate actually is. But it doesn’t need to be this way: it’s important we know the actual divorce rate, so we have a sober understanding of the state of marital longevity.
As it turns out, a detailed look at marriage and divorce statistics reveals both good and bad news. In fact, there is some remarkably good news: many people marrying today actually have a nearly zero risk of divorce. Before we look at that, however, let’s establish what the actual divorce rate is and why so many different, and often wildly conflicting, numbers are bandied about.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member