Is Donald Trump doomed to the same fate? Not necessarily. President Obama found it all but impossible to bend Republicans to his will because he was unpopular among GOP base voters. Though Trump is less popular than Obama with the public at large, he is far more popular with the Republican base. If Trump were to denounce House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and demand that they pursue an agenda more to his liking, he’d have a much better shot than Obama did at mobilizing voters that Ryan and McConnell need to maintain their majorities.
What kind of agenda should Trump compel Republicans in Congress to pursue? In December, the Democratic polling firm Democracy Corps released a memo indicating that Trump’s unusual campaign alienated roughly as many traditional Republicans as it attracted working-class independents, who are deeply skeptical about the mainstream GOP. The shrewd move for Trump would be to push broad themes that excite Trump-friendly independents without alienating Trump-skeptical Republicans. Promising to defend Medicare and Social Security is a good start, and so is demanding that congressional Republicans replace Obamacare with a plan that doesn’t kick millions of people off the health insurance rolls.
Wouldn’t this drive Ryan and McConnell crazy, given that they’ve devoted years to painstakingly crafty their agenda? Of course it would. But that’s a plus as far as Trump is concerned. By bashing recalcitrant Republicans, he will make himself appear more independent and more moderate. And all without doing the hard work of coming up with legislative solutions of his own, which he could claim, reasonably, is not really his job to begin with.
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