Des Moines and other small cities are becoming increasingly attractive places to live, thanks to growing knowledge industries and revitalized downtowns. And the rising cost of living in major metros like San Francisco and New York are pushing many millennials to look elsewhere. Forbes named Des Moines the best city for Young Professionals in 2011, while Raleigh and Columbus both made the top 10 last year.
Without dramatic geographical shifts, the trend will only get worse for Democrats as both parties’ voters increasingly gravitate toward politically like-minded communities without even realizing it, a phenomenon laid out in Bill Bishop’s 2004 book “The Big Sort.”
Politics is becoming a bigger part of people’s identity, Bishop said, and a reliable indicator of what kind of car you drive, TV you watch, or food you eat. And with more mobility than ever, Americans naturally end up clustering together with people like them, leading to more politically polarized communities.
Democratic voters have become even more inefficiently distributed since 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote by a narrower margin than Clinton, while also losing the Electoral College. And Democratic voters will distribute themselves even less efficiently in 2020 and 2024 and beyond — unless there’s a sudden exodus from major cities and the coasts.
Democrats’ distribution problem is not a fatal curse, but they’ll have to overcome the handicap and attract more voters in Republican-leaning areas.
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