So the contagion in the Democrats’ coalition – growing weakness in rural and small-town America – did spread into the West. You can see it at the congressional level; it is part of why Democrats lost seats in eastern and western Colorado; why Cresent Hardy was able to win in Nevada in 2014; why Martha McSally was able to hold on in Arizona in 2016.
If we look at shifts from 1996 to 2016, we see this all spelled out. Again, you can pretty well match Democratic losses in the region against this map (as well as Republican losses in California)…
The charts show the same thing. We see that in the Mountain West, Democratic performance improved in large cities (much like in the South), while it has declined in rural and small-town areas (although not to the extent that it declined in the South). This perhaps reflects the rural Hispanic vote in the area, which is plentiful:
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