It was recently reported by cyber-security expert Bruce Schneier that someone is “learning how to take down the Internet,” which essentially means that a nation-state is “testing the ability to manipulate Internet addresses and routes, seeing how long it takes the defenders to respond, and so on. Someone is extensively testing the core defensive capabilities of the companies that provide critical Internet services.” According to Schneier, the evidence “suggests China,” but it has not been established beyond doubt, due to possible disguise used by the state involved in that probing.
This leads me to my next point, which is that when it comes to cyberspace capabilities, states are constantly pushing the limits and attempting to learn how another states would respond to cyber operations against them. Unfortunately, the DNC hack case study suggests that cyber-attacks against core democratic values may go unpunished, or may have a delayed response, like the diplomats’ deportation. To be clear, the implications of the DNC hack transcend the bilateral relations of Russia and the US, and may include other actors who monitor the situation and evaluate their future actions vis-à-vis the US. This suggests that China is aware that the DNC hack was not accompanied by a real response on the US’s part. That observation may result in China examining the boundaries of what it can get away with in cyberspace.
It may be hard to predict the precise nature of this “cyber war,” but what’s clear is that it could potentially affect communications, online services, confidentiality of sensitive data, unavailability of critical systems and much more. This scenario will occur if tensions between China and the US escalate during the Trump presidency, and with the absence of clear deterrence strategy for cyberspace, the Chinese might get away with it.
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