How Trump can play nice with Russia without selling out America

But a second condition for closer ties also exists today: the end of popular mobilization against autocracies. In Russia, Putin has crushed and contained the opposition. In Ukraine, the new government is struggling to advance democratic and economic reforms while still fighting Russian-supported insurgents in eastern Ukraine. In Syria and Egypt, autocrats are reasserting their control, at least for now. In short, the main cause of increased tensions in U.S.-Russian relations in 2012 is now absent.

Trump must use this moment wisely. Above all else, he must reject Putin’s formulation of ends and means for a new reset. Putin seeks several very concrete objectives from the new American president: Lift economic sanctions; endorse his way of warfare in Syria; acknowledge a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union; suspend missile defense deployments in Europe; and, in his dream of dreams, recognize Russian-Crimean “unification.” In return for these concrete outcomes, Putin will give Trump his ephemeral, empty goal of “better relations with Russia.” For that list, Putin would personally organize the most elaborate state dinner in St. George’s Hall of the Kremlin that any American president has ever attended. Obtaining these concessions from the president of the United States also would help nurture Putin’s image as a powerful global leader, which in turn might embolden him to pursue even more aggressive policies in the former Soviet Union and eventually regarding European institutions. With Trump on his side, Putin’s brand of conservative nationalism could begin to rival liberal democracy as a competing ideology with global appeal.

That’s a bad deal for America. Instead, Trump first needs to develop his own list of foreign-policy objectives, and then try to use this new opportunity to engage Putin to achieve some of these outcomes in which Russia can be a cooperative partner. But Trump must also be ready to ignore Russia’s desires and even contain Russian behavior when such policies serve American national interests.