Why now is not the time to abandon Afghanistan

In a year filled with blockbuster headlines, Afghanistan remained under the radar for much of 2016. That is, of course, not necessarily a bad thing, but plenty of newsworthy issues remain—only on December 21 did Taliban gunmen attack the Kabul home of a member of parliament, killing eight people.

The Afghan national mood is at a record low, according to the latest Asia Foundation survey, with two-thirds of respondents stating the country is “going in the wrong direction,” more than double the proportion who thought so in 2012. This is not surprising: the security situation has worsened; the relationship between the country’s top political leaders remains volatile; economic growth has decelerated; and, although a peace deal was signed, it was not with the Taliban.

There is, however, some cause for optimism and despite evidence of growing fatigue, Afghanistan’s major international partners continue to demonstrate economic and military commitment to the country. With speculation rife as to the impact the Donald Trump presidency will have on U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, the Royal United Services Institute’s (RUSI) assessment from several recent trips to the country is that any significant reduction in current military and financial commitments would have serious repercussions; the very real threat of a civil war, reminiscent of the early 1990s, justifies the continuation of international support.