By combining domestic and external threats, the Kremlin could decide that any number of threats rise to the level of nuclear deterrence. At the height of the crisis over Crimea in 2014, Vladimir Putin ominously declared, “It’s best not to mess with us … I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers.” Putin’s spokespersons regularly engage in nuclear saber rattling, such as his propagandist-in-chief’s warning that “impudent behavior” – such as NATO troops in the Baltic — might have “nuclear consequences.” Meanwhile, Russian media is preparing the population for nuclear war. In one Moscow district, local authorities asked residents to contribute to building bomb shelters “because of the growing international tensions, particularly the expected nuclear aggression against Russia by unfriendly countries.” To reinforce the seriousness of intent, Russian nuclear bombers are regularly sent to challenge NATO and US air space.
Insofar as Russia’s launching a tactical nuclear attack will likely lead to nuclear retaliation, Russia must make its threat sufficiently credible so as to persuade its external opponents to cease and desist on its “hostile” action. Russia will therefore use its primary instrument of foreign policy coercion — its nuclear threat– to frighten off NATO countries, including the US. According to Russia’s new National Security Strategy “strategic deterrence and the prevention of military conflicts are achieved by upholding nuclear deterrence at a sufficiently high level.” The threat of nuclear weapons can hence be used to prevent a local war from escalating into a regional war.
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