If Trump imposes tariffs on imports, as the transition team has suggested he might, the immediate impact would likely be to increase prices for consumers and also for U.S. manufacturers who rely on a global supply chain. And new manufacturing jobs in the U.S. tend to be automated or require a higher level of skill than many workers possess. There were 322,000 manufacturing job openings in October but employers only filled 271,000 of them, according to the latest government data, suggesting a mismatch between openings and skills.
Wages are already rising, so Trump may be able to simply claim credit if the trend continues. But the labor force has been stuck near historic lows for years. Trump’s plans for lower corporate taxes and fewer regulations could lead to somewhat faster growth, analysts say.
But that growth could take several years to develop — a tax reform plan may not even get enacted until the second half of next year — and there is no guarantee it will draw back in workers who left the labor force during the most recent recession and have not returned. All of this means the return of widespread manufacturing gains in the Midwest that Trump promised may not materialize…
In the face of all these challenges, Trump could simply use anecdotal examples of new manufacturing and coal industry jobs, seize on any further increase in wages, decide the jobless rate is now legitimate and declare victory.
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