The assassination of the Russian ambassador in the heart of Turkey’s capital has laid bare how bad things have become. After the coup attempt, Mr. Erdogan began a large-scale purge of state institutions. Thousands of veteran police and intelligence officers were fired or jailed. According to some reports, nearly half of the military’s generals have been imprisoned. The Air Force is largely out of commission.
Meanwhile, Turkey is fighting an unwinnable three-front war in Syria: supporting rebel proxies in their battle against Mr. Assad’s government, taking part in operations against the Islamic State and, most important for the Turkish government, trying to limit the gains of Kurdish groups.
Given all of these constraints, Russia will find that Turkey is easy to pressure. Russia is intent on asserting itself as the primary power broker in Syria. It is well on its way to achieving this status, having just helped Mr. Assad’s government achieve a major victory in Aleppo. But in order to cement its power, Russia will need Turkish acquiescence.
There are signs that Turkey is already getting onboard.
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