Is NATO doomed?

Fossett: America’s willingness to step up militarily is a crucial decision point throughout the book. If you were to write that today, now that Trump is president and with Rex Tillerson possibly as our next secretary of State, how do you think those things would change?

Shirreff: Well, it would make it easier, much, much easier for Vladimir Vladimirovich to launch the attack. As you know, he’s got to be increasingly sure that he’s not going to be haunted by anything, that America won’t step in, and he knows that NATO will not do anything unless America is prepared to take the lead.

The second thing is that America’s failing to underwrite collective defense and the defense of Europe in Article 5 will most certainly cause the collapse of NATO because NATO needs to believe America’s credibility.

And I think a third thing is, if you read to the end of the book, you know, it ends not quite happily ever after, but it does end on a high. And however fantastical that might appear, it won’t end on a high if America fails to step up under Trump. It will be a disaster. It will be a catastrophe.

Now, I’m not saying we’re going to be seeing Russian soldiers marching into Paris. No, far from it. But, once again, what we will see is—well, in the words of Putin, what we’ll see is a new Yalta descend on Europe. It will be a 21st century Yalta. It won’t be enslavement under Communism, but it will be effectively seeing both former republics of the Soviet Union, the three Baltic States in particular, fall increasingly under Russian influence, and as I said, a collapse of NATO and a reversion, I think, to nationalism. It’s still under the surface of Europe and then will come out of the woodwork. So I think we will be in for a very, very uncertain mood for the century.