Could Trump’s freewheeling foreign policy have its benefits?

Several prominent foreign policy analysts have argued that there’s some benefit in creating ambiguity and uncertainty about what the United States might do abroad, especially after years of prudent and predictable Obama administration policy. But they caution that this is a high-risk strategy, which may create consternation among allies even as it enhances deterrence of adversaries.

“Mutual deterrence could be relatively stable” between the United States and China as Trump seeks a more advantageous bargain, Philip Zelikow argues in “The Art of the Global Deal,” published recently in the American Interest. But, Zelikow cautions, whatever bold deals Trump seeks, “it is a time to avoid unnecessary fights.”

Iran is another example where Trump’s rhetoric has introduced uncertainty for a country bidding to challenge U.S. regional power. In two recent visits to Abu Dhabi, I’ve heard many Arab officials enthuse over Trump’s defiant stance toward Tehran. This support for Trump, however unlikely it sounds given his anti-Muslim comments during the campaign, has been reinforced by his decision to name retired Gen. James Mattis, an Iran hawk, as defense secretary.

Russia is the wild card.