Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) was a surprising winner in 2012 after popular veteran senator Richard Lugar (R) was upset in the GOP primary and the eventual Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, stumbled through an underwhelming campaign.
Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) looked headed for defeat four years ago until her GOP challenger, Todd Akin, started talking about rape in a way that offended many in the “Show Me” state. She won reelection easily against the inept Republican.
Jon Tester (D-Mt.) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) proved to be strong campaigners who localized their races, while Joe Manchin (D-West Va.) emphasized his conservative views on issues from guns to coal in a state that has become very Republican in federal elections.
Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who won by 21 points in 2012, seems like a difficult target, but Robert Casey, Jr., who won by nine points, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, who beat a former GOP governor by only five points, appear to be softer incumbents.
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