Why China's seizure of a U.S. Naval drone is so provocative

4. What could explain the seizure?

Many theories are floating around. According to Zhang Baohui, director of the Center for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, one possibility is that the American drone was conducting surveillance against a Chinese nuclear submarine, and China felt the need to deny the U.S. vital military secrets.

Alternatively it may have been a response to Pacific Command chief Harry Harris’s comments last week that the U.S. would confront any Chinese attempts to control the South China Sea. Less likely, it may be due to President-elect Donald Trump’s recent questioning of U.S. policy toward Taiwan or a move by an overly assertive military commander.

“Chinese naval and coastguard vessels operate within the bounds of guidelines that are centrally dictated by officials in Beijing,” said Ashley Townshend, research fellow at the United States studies center at the University of Sydney. “Any changes to established patterns of maritime behavior, like Thursday’s drone incident, would normally need to be pre-approved — particularly if the new actions are likely to be provocative.”