War and Peace: Trump’s iconoclastic foreign policy is likely to come under attack from both hawks and doves. Already, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Marco Rubio have raised concerns over Trump’s Russia policy generally, and his nomination of Rex Tillerson as secretary of state in particular. Meanwhile, Rand Paul has vowed to block the nomination of John Bolton and similar hardliners to any position at the State Department. We should expect everything from Russia sanctions to the Iran nuclear agreement to the War on Terror to reveal similar splits.
Spending and the Debt: Trump has largely abandoned traditional Republican concern over the $20 trillion national debt and resistance to government spending, but many congressional Republicans are likely to feel differently. Speaking for fiscal conservatives in the House, Idaho Republican representative Raul Labrador told reporters, “We are not going to vote for anything that increases the national debt.” Trump’s plan to spend $1 trillion or more on infrastructure is already in trouble. “We know we’re going to have to pay for this,” said Senator John Cornyn, the second ranking Republican in the Senate. “The question is whether we do it now or whether we send it to our kids and grandkids and make them pay for it.” In the House, Speaker Ryan has suggested that infrastructure spending is not high on his agenda. Concern over the debt could even pose problems for Trump’s proposed tax cuts, with Mitch McConnell expressing his desire that any tax-reform measure be revenue-neutral.
Trade: Congress will likely join President Trump’s skepticism of new trade deals, meaning the Trans-Pacific Partnership and similar deals are in real trouble. But congressional Republicans will be far more reluctant to support President Trump’s call for higher tariffs. “I don’t want to get into some kind of trade war,” warns House majority leader Kevin McCarthy.
Immigration: No issue was more central to the Trump campaign than restricting immigration, but even here he may find congressional resistance. Republicans will almost certainly back Trump’s proposals to build a border wall (and Mexico will not be paying for it) and crack down on criminal aliens. But immigration doves, including Lindsey Graham and Arizona senator Jeff Flake, are expected to challenge Trump over the status of the so-called Dreamers under the Delayed Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.
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