That’s because House Democrats are in much better position to recapture the majority in two years than their Senate counterparts. If Trump struggles in office and Democrats benefit as the opposition party, their odds of winning a Senate majority would still be nearly impossible. A mere eight Senate Republicans are facing reelection in 2018, and six of them are running in the most conservative states in the country. Senate Democrats need to pick up three seats to retake the majority, which would require defending all 11 of their vulnerable members while defeating someone like Ted Cruz in Texas or Bob Corker in Tennessee. Don’t bet on it.
But if an anti-Trump wave hits the country, House Democrats would be well-positioned to take advantage—if they recruit effectively and offer a more moderate image than they’ve presented in recent years. They need to pick up 24 seats to regain the majority, around the same number of Republicans who are representing congressional seats that Clinton carried. (Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman said the final tally of split-ticket Republican districts will be between 20 and 23.) To win back the House, Democrats would merely need to flip the plethora of competitive suburban seats where House Republicans ran well ahead of Trump to win reelection. With Trump in office and rebranding the Republican Party, these members will find it more difficult to distinguish themselves from the administration…
Democrats are acting as if the House isn’t even winnable in two years. Pelosi brought back the same chairman, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, who led House Democrats to one of the most disappointing elections in memory. They failed to recruit credible candidates in suburban districts that Clinton carried, and relied on a failed strategy that connected House Republicans to Trump instead of articulating a positive agenda.
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