So what might the costs be? Some have fretted that China will now be “uncooperative” in reining in North Korea—as if Beijing has heretofore been super effective at halting Pyongyang’s ever-growing nuclear weapons program. Others worry that Beijing will now move to punish Taiwan—but it’s already punishing Taiwan for electing a president it doesn’t like. China’s displeasure with Taiwan has been “priced in” to the current state of affairs. Moreover, Taiwan’s president happily took (or perhaps initiated—it isn’t clear) Trump’s call. She clearly made the decision that it was worth angering Beijing.
And the benefits, meanwhile, could be significant. Ever since the Russian annexation of Crimea, it has seemed likely that Beijing will be encouraged to try to retake Taiwan. The precedent, after all, has now been set: National boundaries can be redrawn with only minimal consequences. And the parallels are stark as well—Crimea, historically, had been part of Russia as indeed Taiwan had at one point been part of China. It wasn’t that hard to envisage Chinese strongman Xi Jinping going with the “Crimea option.” That seems a lot less likely now that the U.S. president has made such a bold stand in defense of Taiwan.
There are a couple of ways Trump’s call could backfire, however. For one, there have been news reports that Trump has potential business interests in Taiwan. This, again, shows that the president elect needs to fully separate himself from the Trump Organization, as even when he pursues worthy policies they will look suspicious to some.
More worryingly, until recently, Taiwan has enjoyed quite broad support from both Democrats and Republicans. At a recent celebration in Washington marking Taiwan’s national day, former Democratic Senate leader Tom Daschle was there rubbing shoulders with hawkish neoconservative intellectuals.
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