So, let’s play out a scenario where Trump wins reelection. I imagine that if he is successful enough to do that, he persuaded weary suburbanites from 2016 to pull for him, in addition to holding onto most of his white-working-class base. That one-two combination wins him the popular vote (as Republican-leaning suburbanites well beyond the swing states move into his column), very likely hands him New Hampshire, most of Maine, Nevada, and Minnesota, and will yield some surprisingly close states in the Northeast: a four- or five-point loss in Delaware, New Jersey, and Connecticut, and a ten-point deficit in New York, certainly wouldn’t be off the mark here.
For the out-party, of course there are, and would be, a few bright patches. Remember: No state stands still. Democrats have been whittling away at Arizona, Georgia, and Texas slowly, and have put Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia rather convincingly into their column (at least for now). We could see a reelected Trump do relatively worse in the first three, and probably lose the latter three, so there will still remain some sort of path forward. Democrats will also continue to fight hard in Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida, states where changing demographics can give them a boost.
Democrats failed to rewrite the map in their favor this year: They invested in Arizona or Georgia but still came up short, and are still a long ways off in Texas. But those states have been gradually moving in their favor — just as the Upper Midwest, Pennsylvania, and pockets of the Northeast shifted Republican in a way unthinkable just eight years ago.
Ultimately, the political map is like the weather: if you don’t like it, just wait a while.