Which Republican senators are most likely to fight Trump?

Because of Trump’s unorthodox stances, no senator is a carbon copy of him. (Perhaps that will change once Trump has been in office four years and reshapes the party in his image.) The closest, according to our similarity score, is Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, who like Trump was a wealthy businessman before running for office. And in general, senators who were first elected during the tea party era from 2010 onward are more similar to Trump than those who have held longer tenures in office. The former group includes some senators, such as Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who have publicly feuded with Trump. Their beefs with Trump may have less to do with differences over policy and more about his style of leadership and fitness for office.
By contrast, a few Republican senators really don’t have much in common with Trump, policywise. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, especially, has more differences with Trump than similarities. Arizona Sen. John McCain and Trump may both be “mavericks,” but not in a way that will necessarily be compatible with one another. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s libertarian-ish views are a bad mix for Trump’s populist ones. And moderate, pro-free-market Republicans such as Ohio Sen. Rob Portman may find themselves at odds with Trump on issues such as trade.

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Among Democrats, Trump has some commonalities with moderate, populist Democrats such as North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. Heitkamp, in particular, rates as being closer to Trump on the issues than many Republicans. Several of these Democrats also happen to be up for re-election in 2018 in states that Trump won by wide margins (more about that in a moment). Meanwhile, the least similar senators to Trump are Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell of Washington, liberal Democrats who (unlike many of their liberal compatriots) support free trade.

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