NATO allies are especially worried that in recalibrating relations, Trump might bargain away Western sanctions on Moscow for its annexation of Crimea and support for separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. They also worry that he will not back NATO pledges to deploy more troops to eastern European member states frightened by Putin’s aggression next door. This week, Trump took a congratulatory phone call from Putin, and the two leaders spoke of developing a “strong and enduring” relationship. It now seems clear that part of Trump’s “secret plan” to defeat ISIS has been to align with Russia in combating the group, which could upend current U.S. policy supporting Syrian rebels against the regime of Russian ally Bashar al-Assad.
In our interview, Flynn insisted that Trump will enter negotiations with his Russian counterpart with eyes wide open. “Putin is a totalitarian dictator who does not have U.S. interests in mind, and Trump knows that,” he said. “But Trump is smart and savvy, and he realizes that Russia also has a problem with radical Islamist terrorism, and if we can work together on that threat maybe we can leverage that cooperation to address other issues. So this outreach is all about creating options in his dealings with Russia, just as he wants to create more options in dealing with China. That’s where Trump’s real strength lies—he’s a master negotiator, and that requires having options.”
Trump may come to a better understanding of the international system and the burdens of maintaining a liberal order through his close interactions with experienced military, intelligence, and diplomatic officials. Or perhaps not. No one really knows if Trump’s supposed negotiating prowess will translate to the more complex realm of geopolitics, where the third- and fourth-order effects of any decision can spell catastrophe. The dealmaker soon to be at the center of that Great Game remains an enigma, and the world is anxiously awaiting his opening gambit.
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