Democrats also made some progress in quadrennially targeted, right-leaning Arizona, Georgia and Texas — which is decent news for them. It’s possible to imagine a scenario where Republicans turn Iowa into a safe state and Democrats respond by attempting to pull Arizona into the tossup category. And there’s a conceivable universe where Democrats give up much of the Rust Belt and try to win by flipping Arizona, North Carolina and Florida.
Clinton’s gains in Georgia and Texas may or may not pay off. Trump won the former by five points and the latter by nine, so it’s not impossible to imagine a future where Trump fortifies his position with working-class whites in the Midwest and pushes Georgia and Texas closer to the Democrats. On the other hand, Republicans have been able to hold on to these states despite years of demographic change and Democratic targeting. So it’s unclear when or even if these gains will yield electoral votes for Democrats.
Some might look at these changes, read various election postmortems and conclude that Democrats can only realistically win back the White House if they retool their platform and style to appeal to non-college-educated white voters in the Midwest. And that strategy might work. But it’s worth remembering that at this time four years ago, many Republicans believed that the GOP could only survive if it passed comprehensive immigration reform and focused on reaching out to Hispanic/Latino voters, millennials and women. Trump found a different route to the presidency, and it’s too early to say the next Democratic nominee couldn’t do the same.
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