Donald Trump won the presidential election despite polls that indicated Hillary Clinton was favored. One popular explanation for this is that some people were afraid to admit to pollsters that they supported Trump — what’s being called the “shy Trump” phenomenon. A review of the evidence, however, suggests that probably isn’t why the polls got Trump wrong.
The “shy Trump” theory is the latest twist on an idea that dates back to at least the 1980s, when California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley and other black candidates did worse in elections than the polls had predicted. That led some experts to conclude that voters were hiding their true preferences from pollsters to avoid being seen as prejudiced.
The phrase “shy Trump” is a reference to the related “shy Tory” phenomenon, in which British conservatives (“Tories”) beat their polls in the country’s 1992 general election. The idea resurfaced during this year’s presidential primaries, when Trump won the Republican nomination even though most experts said he wouldn’t. There wasn’t much evidence to support the theory in the primaries — the polls turned out to be fairly accurate — but that didn’t stop speculation that in the general election, Trump supporters would be reluctant to admit they were voting for a candidate with a history of making racist and sexist comments.
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