If Trump is no longer willing to stand up to dictators like Putin because he doesn’t want to be the world’s policeman, people will inevitably look to the U.K. Suddenly, Prime Minister Theresa May becomes the new Atlas, who cannot shrug. This wouldn’t be the first time a “bloody difficult woman” from the U.K. stood up to Russia. But former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had Reagan in her corner. I’m not sure how far Trump would go to protect Europe or back May.
Moreover, May’s desire to negotiate a free trade deal with the U.S. gives Trump a great deal of bargaining power. Trump is not known for easy negotiations. If he’s willing to use Chinese steel in his buildings and stiff his contractors, who knows what kind of deal the U.K. will get or whether he’ll act in good faith. But if May, at least temporarily, halts Brexit for several years, Trump’s bargaining power declines dramatically. Suddenly, he will need her more than she needs him.
Some will inevitably argue the U.K. could lead Europe from outside the EU, but the individual nations’ security forces are a joke. Who within the EU would stand up to an aggressive Putin? France? Germany? Belgium?
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