That said, certainly there were more undecided voters in 2016 than 2012 — 15 percent vs. 5 percent as of late October. Meanwhile, exit poll data suggests an unexpected level of enthusiasm for Trump, and more subdued reactions for Clinton. Turnout patterns point in a similar direction: Clinton underperformed with key Democratic-coalition groups, while Trump did better than expected among Republicans and independents.
Moreover, although some research suggested that “shy Trump voters” were few and far between, other research did find that Republicans were more likely to deflect questions about voting for Trump. And we do not know yet whether some Trump supporters simply didn’t participate in polls at all.
If early coverage is any indication, the 2016 campaign has led many people to doubt the value of modern polling. This is too hasty. As some have suggested, the polls did not fail all that spectacularly in 2016. But they were off by enough in a few key states to give a misleading impression of the outcome.
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