Our results continue to show that campaign news over the past several weeks — including the surfacing of an “Access Hollywood” tape showing Trump making lewd comments about women and FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress about its review of additional emails related to Clinton — have had almost no lasting impact on the opinions of likely voters. However, these events may have influenced who is willing to take public opinion surveys at any particular moment.
In fact, Trump has only led twice in a four-way match-up over the past 17 weeks of our tracking poll since July 11. More than 300,000 respondents were interviewed during that time. Trump’s largest lead was 2 points, and the last week he led was July 18 through July 24 — during the week of the Republican National Convention.
This pattern of stability we continue to observe is relatively unprecedented in modern political campaigns.
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