While the movement toward Clinton is favorable, she is still a little short of Obama’s level of party support, and Trump has also not quite met the standard set by Romney. Clinton is doing well among women, African-Americans, and Hispanics but not as well as Obama did in 2012. Trump is winning men but not by as much as Romney did in 2012.

Why is this? The answer is that education levels are a more significant factor this year. Obama won a majority of those with a high school diploma (or less) in 2012, while Romney won college-educated voters. This year the numbers are reversed. Among white voters with only a high school education, Trump leads by over 25 points. Among whites with a college degree, Clinton leads by about 10 percent.

This is the first time since serious polling began in 1952 that this has happened. The traditional pattern of Democratic support among blue-collar workers this year follows the high-school-or-less pattern with white, blue-collar workers preferring Trump to Clinton. These unique combinations of less support for traditional party loyalties across education levels accounts for the narrow Clinton lead of four points in our latest poll. Another example, which makes the point, is that women with less education are voting for Trump while college-educated women are very strong for Clinton, which cuts into the gender gap and makes Clinton’s lead among women slightly less than Obama’s was in the previous election.