“The bigger surprise on election night would be if he lost Iowa, not that he won it,” said Walter, national editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
To Walter, the numbers suggest Iowa Republican leaders’ support of Trump is helping sway Republicans and independent voters, who are undeterred by questions about his character and temperament. Such factors are critical, she said, because Trump’s path to the White House likely depends on an Iowa victory.
“Donald Trump can’t afford to lose Iowa, and Hillary Clinton can,” she said. “There are multiple paths for Hillary Clinton to get to 270 electoral votes, and many of us who are watching the map have expected that Iowa may not be part of that calculus for her.”…
Forty-one percent of independents support Trump, compared to 34 percent who back Clinton. Trump likewise leads by 5 percentage points — 43 to 38 — among voters under 35.
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