The model suggests that if the current email news sticks to Clinton in the way past controversies have, the election might be close. In July and September (months where Clinton faced scrutiny from the press over her emails and health) her net favorability rating was often between -13 and -17 points. Trump’s current net favorability is -21.0 points, according to the RCP average. If Trump sits at a -20 net favorable rating and Clinton ends up around -15 points, then the model predicts her lead would diminish to about 1.4 points.

That’s not a particularly safe lead. In that scenario, some small errors in this (very simple) model or a small- to medium-sized polling miss in Trump’s favor could give the GOP nominee the White House. And if both candidates end up with a low, roughly equal net favorability rating, the race could be virtually tied.

That being said, we don’t yet know if this story will stick to Clinton through Election Day. If Anthony Weiner (whose laptop was being scrutinized as part of the separate investigation that nonetheless triggered the new one into Clinton’s email) takes most of the attention or if Americans shrug in response to it, her net favorability might stay closer to -10 points. In that case, Trump would need to suddenly earn higher favorability ratings than he’s had for the entirety of this race to equal Clinton’s standing in the polls.

It’s also unclear if the Clinton campaign has more opposition research ready to drop on Trump. If so, it’s conceivable that Clinton could have a -15 net approval rating and Trump could slip back to -25 points. That would translate to a 3.4 point Clinton lead on Election Day, despite Americans not having a great affinity for either candidate.