When Donald Trump is down in the polls, it’s not Donald Trump’s fault, it’s the polls’. Donald Trump trails when he trails because the pollsters are missing something, just like they missed something in Brexit, which they really didn’t. Donald Trump is never failing; it’s the polls that are failing America. Donald Trump is never losing; it’s the pollsters who are losers.

Is he right?

For months, Trump has argued that the pollsters are missing an undercurrent of support in his base. (Trump argues that this is intentional; his team is usually more generous.) That claim has taken on more urgency in those moments where he’s trailing by wider margins, but it’s always there. One iteration of the argument is that Trump supporters are suffering from the legendary “Bradley effect,” the idea that social pressure is preventing respondents from telling pollsters that they back Trump. Trump supporters are worried that the pollster will judge them for being a Trump supporter, the idea goes.