Men usually vote Republican, and Trump leads with them. He has improved five points with men since that Thursday tracking poll, and he is now doing two points better than Romney did in 2012. Although Trump is still losing women, he is actually doing three points better than Romney did with the group, after an eight-point shift since the poll on Thursday. Margins of error apply here, of course, so that shift may appear bigger than it actually was.

But other numbers show where that shift happened. Among whites, Trump is five points behind where Romney was at this point, because Trump is doing worse with college-educated white voters. Compared with Romney, Trump is 18 points ahead with non-college-educated white men and seven points ahead with non-college educated white women — but Trump is performing substantially worse among those with college degrees. Since Thursday, though, those numbers have ticked up a bit. Trump has improved three points among white women with college degrees, and seven among white men with degrees. Among those voters, the race is now basically tied — though Trump is still doing worse with the group than any Republican in decades.