And it’s all true. The model is a perfect, solid machine.

Unless someone pours a bunch of beer all over this machine, which Norpoth concedes Trump might have done.

“If he ultimately loses, it’s because he was unwilling to make the transition from the primary to the general election. He had a big message for change, but he couldn’t lay off of anyone who’s ever slighted him,” Norpoth said. “He’s had so many self-inflicted wounds.”

So Trump’s messing with the model?

“He’s had so many personal quirks and follies. Most candidates manage that better,” he says.