Meet the professor whose "Primary Model" says Trump has an 87% chance to win

And it’s all true. The model is a perfect, solid machine.

Unless someone pours a bunch of beer all over this machine, which Norpoth concedes Trump might have done.

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“If he ultimately loses, it’s because he was unwilling to make the transition from the primary to the general election. He had a big message for change, but he couldn’t lay off of anyone who’s ever slighted him,” Norpoth said. “He’s had so many self-inflicted wounds.”

So Trump’s messing with the model?

“He’s had so many personal quirks and follies. Most candidates manage that better,” he says.

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