What if that effort fails and he is opposed on the floor by 20-30 of his colleagues—falling far short on the first ballot of the majority necessary? One possibility is that the Ryan opponents turn around and support him on a second ballot, using the stinging embarrassment to “teach him a lesson.” That would leave Ryan as Speaker but with the same old dilemma—and a sustained mobilization of virulent anti-Ryan vitriol from the alt-right.

But another would be that the opposition stays firm—with those members feeling the heat from Breitbart and other right wing publications, along with the threat of primary challenges in 2018—for additional ballots, leaving the prize of the speakership in limbo. The Republican conference would reconvene, of course, and might choose an alternative who could command party unity, but it is hard to see who that would be.

Hyper-ambitious Utahn Jason Chaffetz might put himself forward, and the Freedom Caucus could support Jim Jordan of Ohio, Steve Scalise of Louisiana or perhaps Jeb Hensarling of Texas. But a Speaker candidate sharply to the right of the very conservative Paul Ryan might motivate a core of leadership loyalists to pull a reverse Freedom Caucus maneuver and refuse to support the new upstart nominee.