2. There’s a higher quantity, quality, and diversity of polls in the U.S.
There are whole lot more polling in the U.S. election than there was on the Brexit vote: the Huffington Post logged 77 surveys from 25 pollsters, while the Huffington Post’s 2016 tracker tracked 340 polls from 43 pollsters.
British polling on the referendum was largely done online, while American elections use a mix of online polling and live phone polling. NBC News, for example, uses live phone call polling to a mix of cell phones and landlines, as well as online polling by SurveyMonkey to get a broad picture of results.
British Member of Parliament Jo Cox was assassinated just days before the Brexit vote, too, which pollsters said didn’t change voters’ answer but did make certain voters casting “leave” ballots less likely to share their views with others. A similar phenomenon here could occur, particularly with all the controversial news stories surrounding Trump, but pollster say it’s unlikely it could close an 8-point gap between the candidates.
“We’re not close enough that something so narrow could tip the balance,” Cohen said.
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