Clinton has a 67% to 27% lead among non-white voters. More specifically, she has a 65% to 30% lead among Hispanic voters, a group that makes up over one-fifth of the state’s likely electorate. Trump holds a 56% to 35% lead among white voters, including a 64% to 26% lead among white men and a 66% to 28% lead among white voters without a college degree. On the other hand, the race is extremely tight among white women (47% Trump to 44% Clinton) and white college graduates (45% Trump to 43% Clinton).

Clinton has a sizable 52% to 42% edge among voters who report having already submitted their ballots during the state’s early voting period, while Trump leads by 49% to 41% among those who have yet to vote. Currently, 4-in-10 of those polled say they have already voted. Observers expect more than half of all Arizona voters will cast their ballots prior to November 8 th .

“Clinton is banking a significant advantage in Arizona’s early vote. Trump has to count on every other voter who says they are supporting him now to actually show up on Election Day,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.