At first glance, these numbers look promising for Republicans. However, Republicans in Florida and North Carolina did much better with mail in absentee ballot voting than in person voting. The 2016 early voting numbers reported here include only mail in absentee early votes in both states.

One way to benchmark the current 2016 early voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina is to break out the early vote from 2012 by early voting method. This break out allows for a comparison of mail in absentee voting versus in person voting in both states. In 2012, Republicans in Florida cast 3 percent more ballots than Democrats by absentee mail in voting. Results in Florida so far in 2016 show very similar results for mail in voting with Republican down 1 percent compared to Democrats from the 2012 numbers.

North Carolina, however, shows that Democrats are significantly outperforming their 2012 mail in absentee voting numbers. In 2012, Republicans held a 22 percent advantage over Democrats in mail absentee ballots cast. The Republican advantage currently is only 5 percent – a net drop of 17 percentage points from the final 2012 mail in voting numbers.