Things are not going well for Donald Trump’s campaign, as FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows. In the space of a single day (Tuesday), we published articles saying multiple top pollsters expect him to lose the election, that Hillary Clinton might try to play for a landslide, and that Trump might even lose Texas.

And yet, as of midday on Monday, the FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast model still showed that Trump had a 11.4 percent chance of winning. (It’s currently at around 13 percent.) This means that, after our model runs 10,000 simulations of the electoral map with the latest poll data, Trump won in about 1,140 simulations (1,137 to be specific).

What do those victory maps look like? What is Donald Trump’s pathway to the White House, electorally speaking?

My colleague Jay Boice was kind enough to send over the model output from a run on Monday, so I dove in and looked at the 1,137 of 10,000 runs where Trump pulled off a clean electoral win.