National poll: Clinton leads 51/36; race was tied at 43 shortly before first debate

Democratic voters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Republican voters are to support Donald Trump. Ninety-five percent of Democratic likely voters say they are supporting Clinton while roughly nine in ten (87%) Republican likely voters report they are supporting their party’s nominee. Clinton has opened up a substantial lead with independent voters, who are supporting her by a 16-point margin (46% vs. 30%, respectively). Notably, roughly one in four independent voters say they will be casting a ballot for a third-party candidate (17%) or report no candidate preference at all (7%).

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Clinton continues to benefit from her overwhelming lead among female likely voters, who favor Clinton over Trump by a margin of nearly two to one (57% vs. 31%, respectively). Male likely voters are nearly evenly divided in their candidate preferences, with roughly four in ten supporting Clinton (44%) and Trump (40%). This represents a stark reversal from last week, when Trump held a considerable advantage over Clinton among male voters (48% vs. 37%, respectively).

Currently, nearly seven in ten (69%) white evangelical Protestant likely voters express support for Trump, while only 15% say they are supporting Clinton. Support for Trump among white evangelical voters has remained unchanged over the last two weeks. Trump also holds a lead over Clinton among white mainline Protestant voters (49% vs. 37%, respectively). White Catholic voters are evenly divided between Trump and Clinton (44% vs. 44%, respectively), but Catholic voters overall favor Clinton by a considerable margin (57% vs. 33%, respectively). Religiously unaffiliated voters are leaning heavily towards Clinton (69% vs. 17%, respectively), mirroring the advantage Trump enjoys among white evangelical Protestant voters.

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